By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
'Maybe he was wrong, but they believed he genuinely meant what he said.'
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
The Indian government has expressed its disagreement with the IMF staff's 'baseline' assumption that the 50 per cent US tariffs on its goods exports 'would remain in place indefinitely', based on which the staff pegged the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent this year, and pared its 2026-27 projection by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.
Notwithstanding global headwinds, the Indian economy saw further momentum in October on the back of goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation and festival spending, as indicated by high-frequency indicators, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly State of the Economy report said.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
Who else will take on the might of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon if not the Adanis, Ambanis, Birlas, or Tatas?, asks R Jagannathan.
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
The Russians have termed Putin's visit to India, his first to this country since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, as 'Druzhba Dosti', which means 'friendship' in Russian and Hindi respectively.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
In a bid to promote the use of domestic currency for cross-border settlements, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced a slew of measures, including allowing banks to lend in Indian Rupees to non-residents from Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka for bilateral trade.
The deal fell through over unresolved disagreements over contentious issues, mainly on agriculture and automotive sector tariffs.
'Things may get much worse before they get better,' predicts Ajay Chhibber.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
The US' move to raise the tariff on most Indian goods to 50 per cent could drag India's GDP growth for FY26 by 35 to 60 basis points, according to various economists. One basis point (bp) is equal to 0.01 per cent.
The fourth finance ministerial meeting, to be held in New Delhi, will have Finance Minister P Chidambaram from the Indian side and Hyun Oh-seok, Deputy Prime Minister and minister of strategy and finance, from South Korea.
Exporters on Thursday sought a fund of Rs 750 crore for three years to tap USD 25 billion export potential in the US, aiming to seize potential opportunities that may arise as the US President-elect, Donald Trump, has threatened to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. In its pre-Budget meeting with the finance ministry, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ashwani Kumar has also demanded extension of the five per cent Interest Equalisation Scheme (IES).
'What we need to watch is how Saudi Arabia's financial assistance will be used by Pakistan. If the funds go to build their military hardware and operations, it should worry us.'
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
'Given the lag in transmission, further softening of lending rates may happen in the coming months.'
Simplifying GST rates, removing exemptions, easing disputes, and speeding up refunds can boost investment in India and offer the best reply to Trump's tariffs, observes V S Krishnan, former member, Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs.
Nehal Modi, the younger brother of fugitive diamantaire Nirav Modi, has been arrested in the US based on extradition requests from the Enforcement Directorate and the CBI.
India and the UK on Thursday inked a landmark free trade agreement (FTA) that will cut tariffs on British whisky, cars and an array of items, besides boosting bilateral trade by around $34 billion annually.
The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates.
Adani Enterprises' subsidiary Kutch Copper (KCL) and Australian Securities Exchange-listed Caravel Minerals on Thursday signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) for collaboration on the Caravel Copper Project in Western Australia's Murchison region, for an undisclosed amount, according to a joint statement.
Total export from India is expected to register 10 per cent growth during 2010-11, with all sectors including textile showing a revival, top official of Export-Import Bank of India said.
These purchases represent the third phase of Air India's 68-aircraft fleet renewal plan. EXIM Bank had earlier approved $1.2 billion in 2007 and $548.8 million in 2008 to support the financing of NACIL's purchases of Boeing aircraft.
Reliance Industries' refining earnings will remain steady, supported by its position as India's largest importer of Russian crude and favourable global supplies, according to analysts at JM Financial and Goldman Sachs. Reliance imported more Russian barrels than any other Indian refiner in the past eight months, according to data from Bloomberg/Kpler.
Plants should source equipment, services from the US.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and Deputy Governors Poonam Gupta, T Rabi Sankar, Swaminathan J, and S C Murmu on Friday addressed issues during the post-policy media interaction.
From the Sensex firms, HCL Tech, Infosys, Power Grid, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank were among the major laggards. However, Titan, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
Speaking at the 'Samudra se Samruddhi' event, where he inaugurated and laid foundation stones of projects worth Rs 34,200 crore, Modi said all the problems of India have only one solution, and that is self-reliance.
The government on Tuesday announced setting up of hubs to promote exports through e-commerce medium in public-private-partnership (PPP) mode and initially 10-15 hubs will be established. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that these hubs, under a seamless regulatory and logistic framework, will facilitate trade and export-related services under one roof. "To enable MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) and traditional artisans to sell their products in international markets, e-commerce export hubs will be set up in PPP mode," she said.
